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Catalyst Hunter: 2022 Pick Of The Year - Tyranna Resources (ASX: TYX)

Tyranna Resources Limited

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Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (The Company) and Associated Entities own 37,950,000 TYX shares and 10,000,000 TYX options at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by TYX to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in TYX over time.

Today we are announcing a new “Pick of the Year”.

With lithium prices at all time highs and still rising, we have Invested in an early stage lithium explorer with a promising, unexplored project.

Its first drillhole is expected in just a few months.

Our Picks of the Year are Investments across our Portfolios we are most confident have all the right ingredients to potentially hit our Investment goal of 1,000% plus returns over a 3+ year hold period.

Some of our past Picks of the Year at their peak from our Initial Entry price include:

  • EXR +1,208%
  • IVZ +795%
  • PRL +900%
  • ONE +858%

The Next Investors 2020 Small Cap Pick of the Year VUL (also in lithium) was up over 8,000% at its peak.

Our Catalyst Hunter portfolio specialises in high risk/reward, early stage exploration companies.

We have had a positive experience so far Investing in two early stage lithium explorers at Catalyst Hunter since 2020 - the peak from our Initial Entry price:

  • LRS +1,195%
  • RAS +462%

Today we are announcing our Catalyst Hunter 2022 Pick of the Year — an early stage lithium explorer, who is soon about to start the first ever drill campaign on an unexplored project.

IMPORTANT: The past performance of our Picks of the Year and early stage lithium Investments IS NOT an indicator that today’s new Lithium exploration Pick of the Year will perform in a similar way - remember early stage exploration is very risky and many things can go wrong - so only invest what you can afford to lose (see risks section in this note for more).

Our Catalyst Hunter 2022 Pick of the Year Tyranna Resources (ASX:TYX) is a very simple exploration story:

TYX’s project has over 600 lithium bearing rocks sticking out at the surface and they are just a few months away from the first ever lithium exploration drillhole on the project, hoping for a material lithium discovery.

Our big bet: We hope that TYX discovers and defines a large, simple to process lithium resource, that is on par with world class multi-billion dollar ASX peers such as Pilbara Minerals, Core Exploration, Liontown Resources, AVZ Minerals and Sayona Mining.

We have been following and Investing in this story for over six months now.

Today, we are pleased to announce our new Investment and Catalyst Hunter 2022 Pick of the Year:

Tyranna Resources Limited
ASX:TYX

Our 2022 Catalyst Hunter Pick Of The Year is Tyranna Resources (ASX:TYX) - a junior exploration company, focused on making a hard rock lithium discovery in Angola, West Africa.

Today, we will be launching our 2022 TYX Investment Memo, where you can find:

  • Why we Invested in TYX
  • Our long term bet
  • The key objectives we want to see TYX achieve over the next 12 months
  • The key risks to our Investment thesis
  • Our Investment Plan

If you want to follow the progress of our Investment in TYX over the next 3 years make sure you are subscribed to our Catalyst Hunter mailing list or read our weekend newsletter.

TYX holds an 80% interest in a lithium project that hosts over 600 different outcropping pegmatites which are considered the host rock for hard rock lithium projects.

This gives TYX a high level prospective strike zone measuring 25km in length and 10km in width - large enough to host multiple of the worlds largest lithium mines.

TYX’s outcropping pegmatites alone measure up to ~1,500m in length and 100m in width.

For some context, Pilbara Minerals (capped at $11BN) Pilgangoora resource sits on ~8km of strike.

An African example is AVZ Minerals (capped at $2.7BN) resource which sits over a ~13km strike. AVZ has been drilling the project for years as it looks to put its project into development and has seen its share price go from 4.3c to a peak of $1.35 per share (up ~3,000%) through that period.

Most importantly, TYX’s outcropping pegmatites have never been drill tested.

Previous exploration at the project in the 1960’s was solely focused on feldspar and beryl with rock chip sampling having been done on less than 1% of the mapped pegmatites.

Since taking control of the asset in May, TYX has run a lithium focused rock chip sampling program collecting ~50 different samples.

Across the 50 samples, TYX returned an average lithium grade of 3.21% with a peak grade of 9.74%.

At the same time TYX also confirmed the presence of high quality Spodumene bearing pegmatites with very low concentrations of contaminants.

The significance of this is that most of the world's lithium is produced from spodumene hosted lithium projects.

The average lithium grades across the spodumene bearing pegmatites was 7.49% lithium with a peak grade of 7.88%.

All of this has been done leading up to the company’s planned maiden drilling program which it expects to commence in Q4 of this year.

TYX will be following the same tried and tested playbook that has led to the discoveries of some of the world's biggest lithium deposits that have become company making projects, creating hundreds of millions of dollars in value.

The lithium exploration process playbook is fairly simple:

  1. Company maps outcropping pegmatite structures which are likely to host lithium mineralisation. TYX has mapped a 25km x 10km strike full of over 600 different pegmatite structures. ✅
  2. Company samples these outcrops to confirm if there is lithium mineralisation. TYX has taken ~50 rock chip samples returning a peak lithium grade of ~9.74%. ✅
  3. Company confirms spodumene hosted mineralisation - spodumene is the source rock for the majority of the world’s lithium supply. TYX has confirmed mineralised spodumene structures. ✅
  4. Company drills into the outcropping pegmatites to prove out a large lithium bearing structure. TYX plans to drill its project in Q4-2022 🔃

TYX is now finalising the target generation works for its upcoming maiden drilling program.

Our “Big Bet” for TYX is to see it systematically drill out its project, proving up a large scale lithium discovery that displays size and scale potential to rival some of the world’s biggest lithium deposits.

We think that given the 25km x 10km strike zone, TYX has the potential to do this, but of course there is high risk with early stage explorers.

Today, we will be launching our 2022 TYX Investment Memo, where you can find:

  • Why we Invested in TYX
  • Our long term bet - what we think the upside Investment case for TYX is.
  • The key objectives we want to see TYX achieve over the next 12 months
  • The key risks to our Investment thesis
  • Our Investment Plan

Why we invested in TYX

  1. Hundreds of outcropping pegmatites - Pegmatites are the main source for hard rock lithium deposits. TYX has over 600 different outcropping pegmatites spanning a 25km x 10km strike zone.
  2. Never been drilled and has never been explored for lithium - TYX’s pegmatite fields were discovered in the 1960s. The focus at the time was on feldspar and beryl mineralisation. The outcropping pegmatites have never been drill tested, and the project has only had rock chip sampling undertaken on less than 1% of the project's prospects - plenty more analysis to come.
  3. Spodumene bearing pegmatites included in academic research - TYX has confirmed the presence of high quality spodumene bearing pegmatites in its project. Spodumene presence is generally an indicator for high grade lithium mineralisation. TYX will also benefit from extensive academic research completed investigating spodumene presence across its pegmatite fields.
  4. Sampling of the outcropping pegmatites returned high grade lithium - Recent rock chip sampling returned lithium grades as high as 9.75%. The peak grade across the high quality spodumene bearing pegmatites was 7.88% - very high grades. This is a strong sign ahead of drilling.
  5. TYX Technical advisor worked on AVZ Minerals - 4.3c to a peak of $1.35: Peter Spitalny acted as chief technical adviser to AVZ Minerals (capped at $2.7BN, prior to its suspension) for its lithium/tin project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Peter Spitalny is TYX’s principal technical advisor. Having successfully defined a large multi-billion dollar lithium resource, we hope Peter can do it all again with TYX.
  6. We have had previous success Investing in Angola - We have been Invested in Angolan fertiliser & green ammonia developer Minbos Resources for over two years. During that time we watched Minbos’ successful progress its project in Angola seeing its share price rise from 3c to a peak of 21.5c per share (~615%) and more recently we have started to see large investor appetite for battery materials projects inside Angola.

Our long term bet:

(NOTE: This is what we think the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is a lot of work to be done by the company to get to this outcome and obvious risks to which need to be considered, some of which we list below).

We hope that TYX discovers and defines a large, simple to process lithium resource, that is on par with world class multi-billion dollar ASX peers such as Pilbara Minerals, Core Exploration, and Liontown Resources, AVZ Minerals and Sayona Mining.

What we want to see from TYX achieve over the coming 12 months:

Objective #1:Fieldwork to confirm spodumene presence and define drill targets

  • We want to see TYX conduct several field trips to map out and take samples from its project with the aim of identifying the presence of spodumene bearing pegmatites.

Milestones:

Rock chip sampling

Geochemical mapping

🔃 Define the highest priority drilling targets in a drilling program

Objective #2:Drilling of the targets identified in objective #1

  • We want to see TYX drill test high priority targets identified after the ground truthing programs are completed across the project area.

Milestones:

🔲 Drilling permitting

🔲 Drilling commencement

🔲 Drilling results

Objective #3: Make a lithium discovery

  • With drilling slated for Q4 2022, we think that if TYX can return assays grading at or above 1% lithium then the company could confirm a new discovery.
  • Our bull/base/bear case expectations for the drilling results are:

Bull case = Grades of greater than 1.5% lithium

Base case = Grades of greater than 1% lithium

Bear case = Grades of less than 1% lithium

What are the risks?

  • Exploration risk: Although TYX has over 600 confirmed outcropping pegmatites across its project, there is no guarantee that these pegmatites host economically recoverable lithium mineralisation. As with any exploration company, there is always a chance that after drill testing its targets, TYX returns uneconomic lithium grades and the project is considered “stranded”.
  • Commodity pricing: The lithium price is currently trading near all time highs and rising. Any negative change in the lithium price may impact demand for new discoveries. This would particularly hurt the share price of junior explorers like TYX that are still early in the exploration cycle.
  • Funding risk: TYX is a junior explorer that has no revenues to fall back on, as a result the company is reliant on fresh funding for future exploration programs, this will mean TYX comes to market to raise more capital from investors to finance major exploration programs.
  • Market risk: If the broader market sells off there is a chance that investors shy away from high risk investment opportunities such as early stage junior explorers. During market downturns, investors will generally look to pull capital away from the highest risk investments. TYX is an early stage explorer and may be impacted by these market wide sell offs.
  • Geopolitical risk: TYX’s lithium project is located in Angola which is a developing country in the west of Africa. There have been several coups in neighbouring countries and the region has a history of geopolitical uncertainty. As a result there is a risk the regulatory environment changes impacting project permitting, tax laws or tenure requirements.

What is our investment plan?

As with all our new exploration investments, if the share price runs in the lead up to drilling or on a great drill result (by more than 300%), we will likely De-Risk by Top Slicing 20% of our Total Position, in the hope to achieve Free Carry into the remaining drill campaigns.

This is our standard plan across all early stage exploration Investments.

The rest of the Investment plan depends on the outcomes of the company’s drill campaign and will be updated accordingly, and be governed by the 2 to 3 year holding periods as defined in our trading and hold policy disclosure.

Our TYX Progress Tracker

We recently began launching “Progress Tracker” slide decks for our Portfolio companies.

Below is the TYX Progress Tracker document. We will use this internally to keep up to tabs on the company's progress. It shows how the project was brought into TYX and the progress made up to today, along with what we want to see the company achieve next.

Click here to check out our TYX Progress Tracker

If you want to follow the progress of our Investment in TYX over the next 3 years make sure you are subscribed to our Catalyst Hunter mailing list or read our weekend newsletter.



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